Sunday 23 January 2011

Skewed data update

As discussed this morning, the summary now reflects the trial results AFTER the discounting of the selections skewed by the change in some third-party data I use as part of my pre-analysis data collation. The skewed results, a mix of winners and losers, are all on the all-weather. Not all AW selections are affected by the skewed data, only a sub-set, which is why a fair number of AW selections remain, win, lose or draw. The selection of today's losing advice ESEEJ, wasn't compromised by the skewed data set so remains. One of the warts.

It likely that some of you may think I've modified the trial results to deflect from poor performance. I can assure you that isn't the case. If I was going to massage figures for that reason I would have knocked a lot more losers out, AW and jumps. I hope that the way the trial has been conducted so far gives you some reassurance in what I'm doing. The upshot is that my output has been compromised. This benefits no-one. As mentioned earlier, I'll continue to make selections as normal but any that are tainted by compromised data will be highlighted for monitoring. If I'd been aware in the changes in the third-party data prior to 1st Jan I would have held off starting the trial. I've extended the trial end date to Friday 18th March, the final day of the Cheltenham Festival meeting.

Should anyone want a copy of the full trial results please e-mail me on waalays@hotmail.co.uk

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