Update

I'm suspending the trial until I can determine why the selections have performed so poorly. From a high point of ~ +16.5 LSP in the first week, the results since have been disappointingly poor. As I'm the only one (l hope) losing money (admittedly only from previous profits) I hope that the suspension is understandable and affirms my desire to get this right; I need to perform root and branch analysis of recent selections.

Saturday/Sunday update

I'm afraid that I'm to have to suspend the trial for a couple of days as I'm not able to work through and post selections either this morning or tomorrow morning. I'll analyse the cards for both days later tomorrow and post any selections retrospectively. I'm sorry for any inconvenience.

Selections for Friday 28th Jan 2011

Onto today, four selections (one affected by the data change *):

Fontwell 350 MANSHOOR

Wolverhampton 710 CO DEPENDENT

Wolverhampton 740 LUCKY DIVA* & VERLUGA

Results for Thursday 27th Jan 2011

Warwick 325 FULL OF JOY 6th, SP 2/1, BSP 3.35, +0.95LSP

Kempton 520 HI SPEC 1st, SP 7/1, BSP 8.84, -7.74LSP

Kempton 650 AL AMMAN* 5th, SP 5/2, BSP 3.65, +0.95LSP

One from two on the day for a 50% strike rate for Thursday

We made a loss of –6.79 LSP on the day.
Though a successful lay, Al Amman as an asterisked selection, is ignored in the summary.

Selections for Thurday 27th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections (one affected by the data change *):

Warwick 325 FULL OF JOY

Kempton 520 HI SPEC

Kempton 650 AL AMMAN*

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Wednesday 26th Jan 2011

(Musselburgh 305 SONARA* 4th, SP 7/2, BSP 4.80, +0.95LSP)

Huntingdon 345 RADIUS BLEU 3rd, SP 6/1, BSP 8.32, +0.95LSP

Lingfield 425 SCARY MOVIE 4th, SP 6/1, BSP 6.88, +0.95LSP

Two from two on the day for a 100% strike rate for Wednesday

We made a profit of +1.90 LSP on the day.
Though a successful lay, Sonara as an asterisked selection, is ignored in the summary.

Selections for Wednesday 26th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections (one affected by the data change *):

Musselburgh 305 SONARA*

Huntingdon 345 RADIUS BLEU

Lingfield 425 SCARY MOVIE

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

Results for Tuesaday 25th Jan 2011

Sedgefield 200 PINEWOOD LEGEND 6th, SP 3/1, BSP 4.71, +0.95LSP

Leicester 210 PHAR AGAIN 1st, SP 7/2, BSP 4.90, -3.90LSP

Leicester 410 SEASONSELITE Fell, SP 5/1, BSP 6.40, +0.95LSP

Two from three on the day for a 67% strike rate for Tuesday.

We made a loss of –2.00 LSP on the day.

Selections for Tuesday 25th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections (note none are affected by the data change):

Sedgefield 200 PINEWOOD LEGEND

Leicester 210 PHAR AGAIN

Leicester 410 SEASONSELITE

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Monday 24th Jan 2011

Kempton 245 ZELOS DIKTATOR 3rd, SP 11/2, BSP 6.84, +0.95LSP

Wolverhampton 330 TRES FROIDE 2nd, SP 5/1, BSP 6.55, +0.95LSP

Two from two on the day for a 100% strike rate for Monday.

We made a profit of +1.90 LSP on the day.

Selections for Monday 24th Jan 2011

Onto today, two selections:

Kempton 245 ZELOS DIKTATOR

Wolverhampton 330 TRES FROIDE

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Skewed data update

As discussed this morning, the summary now reflects the trial results AFTER the discounting of the selections skewed by the change in some third-party data I use as part of my pre-analysis data collation. The skewed results, a mix of winners and losers, are all on the all-weather. Not all AW selections are affected by the skewed data, only a sub-set, which is why a fair number of AW selections remain, win, lose or draw. The selection of today's losing advice ESEEJ, wasn't compromised by the skewed data set so remains. One of the warts.

It likely that some of you may think I've modified the trial results to deflect from poor performance. I can assure you that isn't the case. If I was going to massage figures for that reason I would have knocked a lot more losers out, AW and jumps. I hope that the way the trial has been conducted so far gives you some reassurance in what I'm doing. The upshot is that my output has been compromised. This benefits no-one. As mentioned earlier, I'll continue to make selections as normal but any that are tainted by compromised data will be highlighted for monitoring. If I'd been aware in the changes in the third-party data prior to 1st Jan I would have held off starting the trial. I've extended the trial end date to Friday 18th March, the final day of the Cheltenham Festival meeting.

Should anyone want a copy of the full trial results please e-mail me on waalays@hotmail.co.uk

Result for Sunday 23rd Jan 2011

Kemp 415 ESEEJ 1st, SP 9/2, BSP 5.40, -4.40LSP

One selection, one loser, -4.4LSP on the day

Selections & news for Sunday 23rd Jan 2011

One selection today:

Kempton 415 ESEEJ

 

Further to my mention of a review of the trial selections something has come to light. It appears that a key part of the external data I collate prior to analysing potential selections has changed, in as much as the way the data is collated and presented. This change has had an impact upon my analysis, as in its current changed form, it over emphasises certain key elements. The good news is that I have managed to work around this. Please be clear that I'm not changing the way I work. I will continue to identify selections as I always have - what I will do now, is identify the selections that are impacted by the data change with an asterisk, so we can all keep an eye on things. Once I have sent tonights update to trial list members I will also send a revised update that identifies and discounts the asterisked selections.

 

Looking back into December, it appears that the data change occurred early on in the month, but that the impact was masked as a result of the significant number of meetings lost due to the very bad weather. Had the data change been communicated at the time, I wouldn't have started the trial on Jan 1st. As we've been a little de-railed by this, I intend to extend the trial until the end of the Cheltenham Festival meeting, Friday 18th March 2011.

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

 

In the event that any blog-watchers want a copy of the weekly or revised update lists please e-mail me on waalays@hotmail.co.uk

 

Results for Saturday 22nd Jan 2011

Haydock 315 BECAUSEICANTSEE meeting abandoned

Lingfield 340 PERFECT ACT 6th SP 6/1, BSP 9.00, +0.95LSP

Lingfield 415 TRANSFORMER 1st, SP 6/4, BSP 2.80, -1.80LSP

One from two on the day for a 50% strike rate for Saturday.

We made a loss of –0.85LSP on the day.

Selections for Saturday 22nd Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections:

Haydock 315 BECAUSEICANTSEE

Lingfield 340 PERFECT ACT

Lingfield 415 TRANSFORMER

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Update for Friday 21st Jan 2011

Yesterday: 

Chepstow 140 SUN DES MOTTES meeting abandoned

Chepstow 355 DUNE SHINE meeting abandoned

 

Selections for Friday 21st Jan 2011

Onto today, two selections, assuming Chepstow survives an inspection:

Chepstow 140 SUN DES MOTTES

Chepstow 355 DUNE SHINE

While I'm obviously disappointed that the trial has gone from a position of theoretical profit to marginally into the red, I remain confident that my approach, proven over the long term, will continue to be successful. Saying that, while I'm not a tinkerer, I'm not impervious to the need for ongoing review so will take some time over the next few days to work back through the trial selections. The usual service will apply, with e-mail delivery and blog update being unaffected. 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Thursday 20th Jan 2011

Lingfield 150 CHANTILLY JEWEL 4th, SP 11/2, BSP 7.80, +0.95LSP

Lingfield 220 LADY ROSSETTI 3rd, SP 5/1, BSP 6.64, +0.95LSP

Lingfield 250 BUAITEOIR 1st, SP 4/1, BSP 5.70, -4.70LSP

Ludlow 310 TIMPO – meeting abandoned

Linfield 320 AQUILIFER 1st, SP 5/2, BSP 3.55, -2.55LSP

Wolverhampton 520 BOLD RING 4th, SP 7/2, BSP 4.85, +0.95LSP

An abandonment and three from five on the day for a 60% strike rate for Thursday.

We made a loss of –4.4LSP on the day.

Selections for Thursday 20th Jan 2011

Onto today, six selections:

Lingfield 150 CHANTILLY JEWEL

Lingfield 220 LADY ROSSETTI

Lingfield 250 BUAITEOIR

Ludlow 310 TIMPO

Linfield 320 AQUILIFER

Wolverhampton 520 BOLD RING

 

A frustrating start to the week. A head and a short head have been the difference between -0.83LSP and +5.7LSP. I'm not a believer in luck but over time, these things do even out.

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Wednesday 19th Jan 2011

Newcastle 215 NEGUS DE BEAUMONT PU, SP 5/1, BSP 6.40, +0.95LSP

Newbury 315 STONEY'S TREASURE 3rd, SP 11/8, BSP 2.50, +0.95LSP

Kempton 630 SACROSANCTUS 1st, SP 9/4, BSP 3.57, -2.57LSP

Two from three on the day for a 67% strike rate for Wednesday.

We made a loss of –0.67LSP on the day.

Selections for Wednesday 19th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections:

Newcastle 215 NEGUS DE BEAUMONT

Newbury 315 STONEY'S TREASURE

Kempton 630 SACROSANCTUS

 

The trial is being followed/reported on at these interesting and totally independent websites:

John Ferguson's www.betopedia.co.uk

Paul Cunningham's www.logolab.co.uk

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Tuesday 18th Jan 2011

Southwell 130 MAMBA PU, SP 9/2, BSP 6.60, +0.95LSP

Southwell 200 WISE HAWK 3rd, SP 5/1, BSP 7.80, +0.95LSP

Wolverhampton 350 PIQUANTE 1st, SP 15/8, BSP 3.06, -2.06LSP

We made a loss of –0.16LSP on the day.

Two from three on the day for a 67% strike rate for Tuesday.

Selections Tuesday 18th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections:

Southwell 130 MAMBA

Southwell 200 WISE HAWK

Wolverhampton 350 PIQUANTE

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

Update for Monday 17th Jan 2011

Onto today:

A quiet start to the week, no selections.

 

The WAALays trial is being followed and reported on at these interesting and totally independent websites:

John Ferguson's www.betopedia.co.uk

Paul Cunningham's www.logolab.co.uk

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Result for Sunday 16th Jan 2011

Ffos Las 240 SHINROCK HILL 9th, SP 5/1, BSP 7.20, +0.95LSP

Our single lay being successful returns a 100% strike rate for Sunday.

We made a profit of +0.95LSP on the day

Selection for Sunday 16th Jan 2011

Onto today, just one selection

Ffos Las 240 SHINROCK HILL

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

Results for Saturday 15th Jan

Kempton 155 POLYFAST 1st, SP 9/2, BSP 5.80, -4.80LSP

Warwick 210 ALFIE SPINNER 2nd, SP 9/2, BSP 5.90, +0.95LSP

Kempton 335 THE BETCHWORTH KID 13th, SP 3/1, BSP 4.60, +0.95LSP

Two from three on the day for a 67% strike rate for Saturday.
We made a loss of –2.90LSP on the day.

Selections for Saturday 15th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections:

Kempton 155 POLYFAST

Warwicl 210 ALFIE SPINNER

Kempton 335 THE BETCHWORTH KID

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

Results for Friday 14th Jan 2011

Huntingdon 240 GUNS OF LOVE 2nd, SP 13/8, BSP 2.83, +0.95LSP

Musselburgh 320 BALLY WALL 3rd, SP 9/2, BSP 7.20, +0.95LSP

Lingfield 330 OCEAN OF PEACE 5th, SP 15/2, BSP 9.74, +0.95LSP

Three from three on the day for a 100% strike rate for Friday.
We made a profit of +2.85LSP on the day.

Selections for Friday 14th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections:

Huntingdon 240 GUNS OF LOVE

Musselburgh 320 BALLY WALL

Lingfield 330 OCEAN OF PEACE

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Thursday 13th Jan 2011

Catterick 250 WHAT'S OCCURIN PU, SP 4/1, BSP 5.63, +0.95LSP
Hereford 310 RUNNING UPTHATHILL PU, SP 10/1, BSP 14.13, +0.95LSP
Kempton 450 SONG OF PRAISE 8th, SP 9/2, BSP 5.87, +0.95LSP
Kempton 620 ZEBRANO 1st, SP 3/1, BSP 4.03, -3.03LSP

Three from four on the day for a 75% strike rate for Thursday.
We made a loss of –0.18LSP on the day.

Selections for Thursday 13th Jan 2011

Four selections today

 

Catterick 250 WHAT'S OCCURIN

Hereford 310 RUNNING UPTHATHILL

Kempton 450 SONG OF PRAISE

Kempton 620 ZEBRANO

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Update for Wednesday 12th Jan 2011

Ling 335 SHARED MOMENT 1st, SP 9/2, BSP 5.9, -4.9LSP

Kemp 445 KIDLAT 1st, SP 5/4, BSP 2.35, -1.35LSP

Two selections today. No winners.
A loss on the day of -6.25 LSP

These are still laying advices. Just doesn't look that way over the last couple of days.
The trial is still in profit.

Selections Wednesday 12th Jan 2011

Thank you for your interest in the trial of WAALays.

Two selections today.

Lingfield 325 SHARED MOMENT

Kempton 445 KIDLAT

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

Results for Tuesday 11th Jan 2011

Newc 210 STAR PLAYER 1st, SP 9/2, BSP 5.7, -4.7LSP

Leic 230 RED ROUBLE 3rd, SP 2/1, BSP 3.6, +0.95LSP

Two selections today. One loser, one winner so a 50% strike rate on the day.

A loss on the day of -3.75 LSP.

On the face of it, a poor day. As I said previously on the blog, there won’t be any excuses when selections go against us. It has happened in the past. It has happened today. And it will certainly happen again in the future.

Results like today’s are one of the reasons I chose to trial WAALays for at least two months. Had I gone with what appears to be the norm, namely one weeks trial, last week I’d have been a champ while this week I’d have been a chump. Very little difference. Only one letter. A good analogy; you don’t need much of a difference to turn a good day into a bad one, or vice versa. Two months should give everyone a fair crack, you and me.

Even though the trial is still in its early stages, it is probably worth having a quick look at the figures. We’re currently towards the bottom of my suggested strike-rate percentage at 88%, we’re marginally under my average ROI% at 38.9% and we’re a little under my targeted point profit a day average at +0.88LSP/day. So, all things considered, I think we’re doing okay. I hope you agree.

At least no-one has lost any money. Have you. Because this is a trial and should be paper-traded and not followed with real money!

Selections for Tuesday 11th Jan 2011

Thank you for your interest in the trial of WAALays.

 

Two selections today.
Newcastle 210 STAR PLAYER

Leicester 230 RED ROUBLE

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

Results for Monday 10th Jan 2011

Four selections today.

Taunton 315 AMERICAN LADIE 2nd, SP 4/1, BSP 5.9, +0.95LSP

Taunton 415 AWESOME FREDDIE 1st, SP 10/3, BSP 5.3, -4.3LSP

Wolverhampton 205 NOT SO BRIGHT 2nd, SP 3/1, BSP 5.42, +0.95LSP

Wolverhampton 505 IGUACU 4th, SP 9/4, BSP 5.0, +0.95LSP

Three from four on the day for a 75% strike rate for Monday.
We made a loss of -1.45LSP on the day.

Selections for Monday 10th Jan 2011

Thank you for your interest in the trial of WAALays.

No selections yesterday so no results to report.

 

Four selections today.
Taunton 315 AMERICAN LADIE

Taunton 415 AWESOME FREDDIE

Wolverhampton 205 NOT SO BRIGHT

Wolverhampton 505 IGUACU

 

Any new blog readers who want to receive the daily selections by e-mail please drop me a line at waalays@hotmail.co.uk

Update - Sat 1st Jan to Sun 9th Jan inclusive

As promised, this post summarises how the trial has performed, since the start on Saturday 1st Jan. I'll post a similar summary every Sunday to cover the previous week; this one covers a slightly longer period as our first period end came after only two days. Newer blog-watchers please note that all of the advices are available in the history, time-stamped to prove delivery was well before the actual race start times.

Sun 9th

No selections

Sat 8th

No selections

Fri 7^th

Ling 310 SYRIAN 4th, SP 9/2, BSP 7.36, +0.95LSP

Thur 6^th

Hunt 140 QUINTUS 5th, SP 9/2, BSP 6.67, +0.95LSP

Hunt 240 MAMBA 2nd, SP 4/1, BSP 5.25, +0.95LSP

South 250 POWERFUL PRESENCE 1st, SP 2/1, BSP 3.17, -2.17LSP

Wolv 710 CANE CAT 6th, SP 13/2, BSP 8.8, +0.95LSP

Weds 5^th

South 240 MY LES PU, SP 8/1, BSP 11.45, +0.95LSP

Kemp 605 ALGRIS 7th, SP 2/1, BSP 3.9, +0.95LSP

Tues 4^th

Kemp 300 LOVE YOU LOUIS 8th, SP 3/1, BSP 4.1, +0.95LSP

Kemp 430 COZY TIGER 2nd, SP 11/4, BSP 4.0, +0.95LSP

Leic 150 GUNS OF LOVE 4th, SP 15/2, BSP 10.0, +0.95LSP

Mon 3^rd

Ayr 240 DEVOTION TO DUTY 7th, SP 7/1, BSP 9.6, +0.95LSP
Ayr 310 SAMBELUCKY 2nd, SP 3/1, BSP 4.4, +0.95LSP

Sun 2^nd

Folk 115 DOYENNE DREAM PU, SP 9/2, BSP 6.69, +0.95LSP
Ayr 225 GLINGERBANK 11th, SP 14/1, BSP 20.34, +0.95LSP
Ayr 300 SHERIFF HALL 4th, SP 7/2, BSP 4.96, +0.95LSP
Plum 245 QUEZTAL PU, SP 7/2, BSP 4.8, +0.95LSP
Plum 315 ERE ALFIE 6th, SP 6/4, BSP 2.72, +0.95LSP
Plum 345 TOCATCHAPRINCE PU, SP 10/3, BSP 4.51, +0.95LSP

Sat 1^st (trial start date)

Fake 2:45 PEAK SEASONS 3rd, SP 4/1, BSP 5.55, Return +0.95LSP

In synopsis (1st to 9th Jan inclusive):
18 successful advices from 19
+14.93 level stakes profit (using BSP and deducting maximum Betfair commission)

While I believe it is far too early in the trial to be calculating any averages, I hope that the first nine days performance has shown that the results I alluded to are possible. And in the long term.
My overall strike rate oscillates between the high eighty and low ninety percents.
The overall average Betfair starting price of losing advices is less than 9/2.
My running average return on investment is 40%.
Which all allows me to deliver an average of a point a day profit. 

Sunday 9th January 2011

Thank you for your interest in the trial of WAALays.

No selections yesterday so no results to report.

 

THERE ARE NO SELECTIONS TODAY.

With just the all-weather meeting at Southwell surviving the weather, and a card full of smallish fields, with a lot of recent winners running and plenty of claiming jockeys of varying levels of ability, it's no real surprise to have a blank day. I'm sorry that we've had two on the trot to bring our first period to a subdued end.

 

I will update later, detailing the activity and results from the start of the trial. I'll do this every Sunday until the end of the trial period. Of course, all selections and results are available in the blog history too.

 

Should you have any queries or comments, please feel free to drop me a line. I'd like to hear from you.

Please feel free to pass on details of the trial/blog to anyone else you think may be interested.

Saturday 8th January 2011

Thank you for your interest in the trial of WAALays.

Just the one selection yesterday which was a successful lay so +0.95LSP profit on the day.

 

THERE ARE NO SELECTIONS TODAY.

This does happen from time to time.
 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Please feel free to pass on details of the trial/blog to anyone else you think may be interested.

Result for Friday 7th Jan 2011

One selection today.
Lingfield 310 SYRIAN 4th, SP 9/2, BSP 7.36, +0.95LSP


Which was a successful lay so we're +0.95 LSP on the day.

Selections for Friday 7th Jan 2011

Thank you for your interest in the trial of WAALays.

Three successful lays out of four yesterday for +0.68LSP profit.

 

One selection today.
Lingfield 310 SYRIAN

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Thursday 6th Jan 2011

Huntingdon 140 QUINTUS 5th, SP 9/2, BSP 6.67, +0.95LSP

Huntingdon 240 MAMBA 2nd, SP 4/1, BSP 5.25, +0.95LSP

Southwell 250 POWERFUL PRESENCE 1st, SP 2/1, BSP 3.17, -2.17LSP

Wolverhampton 710 CANE CAT 6th, SP 13/2, BSP 8.8, +0.95LSP

Three from four on the day for a 75% strike rate for Thursday.
Powerful Presence's low BSP means we still made a profit of +0.68LSP on the day.