Results for Tuesaday 25th Jan 2011

Sedgefield 200 PINEWOOD LEGEND 6th, SP 3/1, BSP 4.71, +0.95LSP

Leicester 210 PHAR AGAIN 1st, SP 7/2, BSP 4.90, -3.90LSP

Leicester 410 SEASONSELITE Fell, SP 5/1, BSP 6.40, +0.95LSP

Two from three on the day for a 67% strike rate for Tuesday.

We made a loss of –2.00 LSP on the day.

Selections for Tuesday 25th Jan 2011

Onto today, three selections (note none are affected by the data change):

Sedgefield 200 PINEWOOD LEGEND

Leicester 210 PHAR AGAIN

Leicester 410 SEASONSELITE

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Results for Monday 24th Jan 2011

Kempton 245 ZELOS DIKTATOR 3rd, SP 11/2, BSP 6.84, +0.95LSP

Wolverhampton 330 TRES FROIDE 2nd, SP 5/1, BSP 6.55, +0.95LSP

Two from two on the day for a 100% strike rate for Monday.

We made a profit of +1.90 LSP on the day.

Selections for Monday 24th Jan 2011

Onto today, two selections:

Kempton 245 ZELOS DIKTATOR

Wolverhampton 330 TRES FROIDE

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening. 

Skewed data update

As discussed this morning, the summary now reflects the trial results AFTER the discounting of the selections skewed by the change in some third-party data I use as part of my pre-analysis data collation. The skewed results, a mix of winners and losers, are all on the all-weather. Not all AW selections are affected by the skewed data, only a sub-set, which is why a fair number of AW selections remain, win, lose or draw. The selection of today's losing advice ESEEJ, wasn't compromised by the skewed data set so remains. One of the warts.

It likely that some of you may think I've modified the trial results to deflect from poor performance. I can assure you that isn't the case. If I was going to massage figures for that reason I would have knocked a lot more losers out, AW and jumps. I hope that the way the trial has been conducted so far gives you some reassurance in what I'm doing. The upshot is that my output has been compromised. This benefits no-one. As mentioned earlier, I'll continue to make selections as normal but any that are tainted by compromised data will be highlighted for monitoring. If I'd been aware in the changes in the third-party data prior to 1st Jan I would have held off starting the trial. I've extended the trial end date to Friday 18th March, the final day of the Cheltenham Festival meeting.

Should anyone want a copy of the full trial results please e-mail me on waalays@hotmail.co.uk

Result for Sunday 23rd Jan 2011

Kemp 415 ESEEJ 1st, SP 9/2, BSP 5.40, -4.40LSP

One selection, one loser, -4.4LSP on the day

Selections & news for Sunday 23rd Jan 2011

One selection today:

Kempton 415 ESEEJ

 

Further to my mention of a review of the trial selections something has come to light. It appears that a key part of the external data I collate prior to analysing potential selections has changed, in as much as the way the data is collated and presented. This change has had an impact upon my analysis, as in its current changed form, it over emphasises certain key elements. The good news is that I have managed to work around this. Please be clear that I'm not changing the way I work. I will continue to identify selections as I always have - what I will do now, is identify the selections that are impacted by the data change with an asterisk, so we can all keep an eye on things. Once I have sent tonights update to trial list members I will also send a revised update that identifies and discounts the asterisked selections.

 

Looking back into December, it appears that the data change occurred early on in the month, but that the impact was masked as a result of the significant number of meetings lost due to the very bad weather. Had the data change been communicated at the time, I wouldn't have started the trial on Jan 1st. As we've been a little de-railed by this, I intend to extend the trial until the end of the Cheltenham Festival meeting, Friday 18th March 2011.

 

I will update the blog with results every day and send a summary e-mail to the trial distribution list on a Sunday evening.

 

In the event that any blog-watchers want a copy of the weekly or revised update lists please e-mail me on waalays@hotmail.co.uk